cs2props

// // model v3
CS2 kill and headshot projections beside both books’ lines. Model output on matches that have not started — not advice. How it works
More about these numbers
Every CS2 match on the slate in start order, each projection shown with its typical range and beside both books’ lines, and where the two books disagree on the number. Best-of-one matches are projected over their single map, best-of-three over maps 1–2. Nothing on this page is a result.
matches
51
players
410
projections
1042
kills vs mkt
+0.30
implied HS
50.9%
Track record right side of the kills line 50.2% of the time, 55 slates · break-even ≈53%Slate checks 5 pass · 1 warnFull record and checks →

Price differences

Props both books priced at different numbers, ordered by how often the better number decides the result.
Edge size has not predicted results.
Over 2,240 scored kills rows, a bigger gap between projection and line hit no more often than a small one, so nothing on this page is ordered by it. The model itself has landed on the right side of the line 50.2% of the time over 55 scored slates, against a break-even of about 53%. What did hold up in testing is the price itself: where the books disagreed, the better number hit more often than the worse one (48.3% against 44.0%) — still short of break-even, and nothing here is advice.
Filters
Stat Markets 0 rows shown · also filters the match tables below
How to read this
Gold marks the better number for the side the projection leans — the lower line for an over, the higher for an under. It says where the better price is, not which side to take.
ReadingPP PrizePicks  UD Underdog28.5U the better number for the side the projection leans (O = over, U = under) — a price comparison, not advice23.4±4.3 projection and its typical range — how far a result usually lands from a projection this sizeDecides how often taking the better number instead of the worse one changes the result — about price, not which side to takesplit the two halves of the projection (model and recent form) disagree on the side of the linefew games not many recent rounds behind this projectionEdge SD how far the projection is from the better number, in units of the typical range — for scale only, it has not predicted results
Sanity checkboth look normalthe line looks offthe projection looks offin the Edge SD column: a kills-per-round rate no CS2 player actually produces. A line that looks off is usually bad data, and bad data makes a fake price difference.
PlayerMatchStatPPUDGapBetter numberDecidesProjEdge SD
jimpphatjimpphat’s player pageSupportMaps 1-2 · auroraTeam AURORA vs Team FalconsKills28.029.51.5Under 29.5UD~10% of outcomes are decided by the better number26.5 typical range plus or minus 7.7OK — projection 0.624 kills/rd, line 0.659 kills/rd; plausible band 0.47–0.96-0.4
m0nesym0nesy’s player pageAWPerMaps 1-2 · falconsTeam AURORA vs Team FalconsHeadshots15.014.50.5Under 15.0PP~8% of outcomes are decided by the better number14.3 typical range plus or minus 5.0 (the model and the trailing rate disagree)OK — projection 0.336 HS/rd, line 0.353 HS/rd; plausible band 0.18–0.47-0.1
xantaresxantares’s player pageEntryMaps 1-2 · auroraTeam AURORA vs Team FalconsHeadshots15.015.50.5Under 15.5UD~8% of outcomes are decided by the better number14.8 typical range plus or minus 5.2OK — projection 0.348 HS/rd, line 0.353 HS/rd; plausible band 0.18–0.47-0.1
nikoniko’s player pageMaps 1-2 · falconsTeam AURORA vs Team FalconsHeadshots15.516.51.0Under 16.5UD~8% of outcomes are decided by the better number15.1 typical range plus or minus 5.3OK — projection 0.355 HS/rd, line 0.365 HS/rd; plausible band 0.18–0.47-0.3
flouzerflouzer’s player pageMaps 1-2 · nucleartigeresEx-Rustec vs Nuclear TigeresHeadshots15.516.51.0Under 16.5UD~7% of outcomes are decided by the better number15.3 typical range plus or minus 5.4OK — projection 0.339 HS/rd, line 0.344 HS/rd; plausible band 0.18–0.47-0.2
wicadiawicadia’s player pageMaps 1-2 · auroraTeam AURORA vs Team FalconsHeadshots17.017.50.5Under 17.5UD~7% of outcomes are decided by the better number16.1 typical range plus or minus 5.6OK — projection 0.379 HS/rd, line 0.400 HS/rd; plausible band 0.18–0.47-0.2
karrigankarrigan’s player pageEntryIn-game leaderMaps 1-2 · falconsTeam AURORA vs Team FalconsKills22.021.50.5Under 22.0PP~6% of outcomes are decided by the better number21.4 typical range plus or minus 6.2OK — projection 0.504 kills/rd, line 0.518 kills/rd; plausible band 0.47–0.96-0.1
djon8djon8’s player pageMaps 1-2 · nucleartigeresEx-Rustec vs Nuclear TigeresHeadshots18.517.51.0between: the projection sits between the two lines, so there is no single better side~6% of outcomes are decided by the better number18.0 typical range plus or minus 6.3OK — projection 0.399 HS/rd, line 0.410 HS/rd; plausible band 0.18–0.47–
tesesteses’s player pageEntryMaps 1-2 · falconsTeam AURORA vs Team FalconsKills28.027.50.5Under 28.0PP~6% of outcomes are decided by the better number24.0 typical range plus or minus 7.0OK — projection 0.565 kills/rd, line 0.659 kills/rd; plausible band 0.47–0.96-0.6
xantaresxantares’s player pageEntryMaps 1-2 · auroraTeam AURORA vs Team FalconsKills28.028.50.5Under 28.5UD~5% of outcomes are decided by the better number26.0 typical range plus or minus 7.5 (the model and the trailing rate disagree)OK — projection 0.612 kills/rd, line 0.659 kills/rd; plausible band 0.47–0.96-0.3
bl1x1bl1x1’s player pageMaps 1-2 · exrustecEx-Rustec vs Nuclear TigeresKills27.528.51.0Under 28.5UD~5% of outcomes are decided by the better number26.9 typical range plus or minus 7.8 (the model and the trailing rate disagree)OK — projection 0.596 kills/rd, line 0.610 kills/rd; plausible band 0.47–0.96-0.2
woxicwoxic’s player pageAWPerMaps 1-2 · auroraTeam AURORA vs Team FalconsKills28.028.50.5Under 28.5UD~5% of outcomes are decided by the better number26.8 typical range plus or minus 7.8 (the model and the trailing rate disagree)OK — projection 0.631 kills/rd, line 0.659 kills/rd; plausible band 0.47–0.96-0.2
kyousukekyousuke’s player pageEntryMaps 1-2 · falconsTeam AURORA vs Team FalconsKills31.532.51.0Under 32.5UD~5% of outcomes are decided by the better number28.1 typical range plus or minus 8.2OK — projection 0.661 kills/rd, line 0.741 kills/rd; plausible band 0.47–0.96-0.5
wicadiawicadia’s player pageMaps 1-2 · auroraTeam AURORA vs Team FalconsKills31.031.50.5Under 31.5UD~5% of outcomes are decided by the better number28.8 typical range plus or minus 8.3OK — projection 0.678 kills/rd, line 0.729 kills/rd; plausible band 0.47–0.96-0.3
m0nesym0nesy’s player pageAWPerMaps 1-2 · falconsTeam AURORA vs Team FalconsKills35.536.51.0Under 36.5UD~4% of outcomes are decided by the better number34.5 typical range plus or minus 10.0OK — projection 0.812 kills/rd, line 0.835 kills/rd; plausible band 0.47–0.96-0.2

By match

Tier Format 51 of 51 matches shown · the filters above still apply
How to read this
ReadingPP PrizePicks  UD Underdog28.5U the better number for the side the projection leans (O = over, U = under) — a price comparison, not advice23.4±4.3 projection and its typical range — how far a result usually lands from a projection this sizeDecides how often taking the better number instead of the worse one changes the result — about price, not which side to takesplit the two halves of the projection (model and recent form) disagree on the side of the linefew games not many recent rounds behind this projectionEdge SD how far the projection is from the better number, in units of the typical range — for scale only, it has not predicted results
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